Fantasy Football Week 7 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Update 10/22: This week’s player rankings have been updated. Make sure to check them out in addition to reading this post.

I am watching Neftali Feliz close out the Yankees in Game 3 as I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start em, Sit em post. Right now, this series is through three game, the Rangers have absolutely dominated all but one inning, yet the Yankees find themselves down just a game.

If AJ Burnett can somehow pitch well in Game 4 and the Yankees win, they will find themselves at a very fortuitous 2-2…but 2-2 nonetheless.

Keep this in mind with your fantasy teams.

Maybe you’ve started off slowly this year with plenty of underperforming players. Maybe you grabbed one or two lucky wins and are just hanging on right now. Well, hang on. Work a little harder. Study the waiver wire. Study your players and the matchups to make better choices. You never know when you’re team can get hot and rattle of 3, 4, 5 victories in a row.

At this point, you’re probably stuck with 80-85% of your roster, so don’t give up. There is still plenty of season left to fight your way into the playoffs.

And with that said, let’s fight our way to victories in Week 7.

But first, as always, a quick look back at Week 6:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Wallace
• Start ‘em misses: Chicago D, Chris Cooley
• Sit ‘em hits: Tom Brady, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Tate, New England D
• Sit ‘em misses: Todd Heap

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Lions, Texans, Colts, and Jets are on bye in Week 7.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Deion Branch” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. But if you own Roy Williams, yes I’d start Roy. I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Buffalo)

The Bills were off in Week 6. During the first five weeks of the season they gave up 2+ TDs per game (11 total) and picked off only one pass. Don’t be fooled by the their low yardage total allowed (200 per game). That was mostly a function of teams getting up early and often on Buffalo and then choosing to run the ball.

Joe Flacco has disappointed many of his fantasy owners, but he’s coming off of a 2-TD, 285-yard performance against New England, and now has 6 TDs and 1 INT over the last four weeks.

The Ravens will be smarting after their OT loss to the Patriots and cannot afford a letdown against the Bills. They’ll come out ready to play and Flacco will have a solid day.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 7 projection: 250 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Tony Romo is a bag full of good and bad. He throws for lots of yards, throws lots of TDs, and also throws lots of INTs. But he throws, a lot, regardless of the game, and that’s why you need to keep him in your lineups.
• Chad Henne is not a guy I trust long-term this season. However, with Pittsburgh sporting the league’s best run D, the Dolphins will be forced to pass. If Colt McCoy could have a solid day against Pittsburgh with virtually no weapons, Henne should be able to put up some decent numbers with Brandon Marshall if you’re desperate for bye week filler.
• I like Sam Bradford against Tampa Bay, even with his no-name group of wide receivers. The Bucs gave up a nice day to Drew Brees in Week 6. Take about 3/4 of that and I think that’s what you can get from Bradford in Week 7.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (vs Washington)

I just do not trust Jay Cutler. More specifically, I don’t trust his offensive line to give him any significant amount of time to effectively play his position. (And I also don’t like nor trust Jay Cutler. At all.)

In Week 6, Cutler returned from his concussion and threw 290 yards. That doesn’t sound bad, expect when you qualify it by saying that he was 17-39 and threw no TDs. And this comes on the heels of Cutler throwing 1 TD against 2 INTs in his previous two games.

I realize that Washington has given up a lot of passing yards this season, but they can also rush the passer pretty well. With the way the Bears’ passing game has sputtered the last two weeks, I want to see it succeed before I trust Cutler again.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 7 projection: 275 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Matt Ryan threw two TDs last week against Philly, but both came after the Falcons fell behind 21-0. In Week 7, I expect the Falcons to be leading the Bengals, and thus able to run more. Plus, Cincinnati has a couple of good corners that will make life tough on the Falcons’ WRs.
• Carson Palmer does not start until further notice. And I’m not sure that notice will ever come. I certainly don’t like him against a pissed off Atlanta defense.
• Matt Cassel threw for 3 TDs against Houston’s D. While Jacksonville’s pass D is nothing to write home about, they are not historically bad like Houston’s is. Go ahead and trust Cassel if you want to. I won’t.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Oakland)

It’s been a long season for Knowshon Moreno owners. The talented second-year back has been hobbled by a hamstring injury most of the season, although he did score TDs in each of the first two weeks. Finally, Moreno got back on the field in Week 6, and he did okay. He only got 12 carries against the Jets, but he did earn 4 yards per carry, which is a decent sign that the hammy is better.

The reason Moreno is a good start in Week 7 is his matchup. Denver faces an Oakland team that was ranked 31st in the NFL against the run coming into the game, giving up 147.8 yards per game rushing. In Week 7, Frank Gore torched the Raiders for 149 yards rushing. I’m not sure Moreno will do that well, but if you’ve stayed patient with him, you have to play him this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 7 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 7:

• Cedric Benson has run well the last the two weeks. As badly as Carson Palmer has been playing, you know they’ll keep giving it to Benson. Keep him in your lineup.
• Ahmad Bradshaw continues to put up solid numbers. He also has a career 4.7 yard average against the Cowboys, who have given up solid fantasy days to three straight runners.
• I was not high on Marshawn Lynch in Week 7, yet he got 17 carries and scored a TD at the Bears. He should find the going a bit easier against Arizona, which has one of the league’s worst run defenses.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em RB: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, Miami (vs Pittsburgh)

I like Brown and Williams long-term, because I think the Dolphins have to run the ball to win games. That said, neither Brown nor Williams has done a whole hell of a lot so far this year (one combined TD) and they don’t exactly have a great matchup in Week 7.

Pittsburgh was first in the NFL in rushing yards allowed heading into Week 6. After holding the previously red hot Peyton Hillis to just 41 yards rushing last week, that #1 ranking should sustain.

If you own both Ronnie and Ricky, Brown is the one to play. He got 19 carries last week against Green Bay and remains the #1 option. But these two are flex plays at best this week, and I would love it if I had the luxury of sitting them for this week.

Ronnie Brown fantasy football Week 7 projection: 55 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving

Ricky Williams fantasy football Week 7 projection: 35 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 7:

• The Seattle Seahawks have been outstanding against the run this year, and they are even better at home. I would not want either Beanie Wells nor Tim Hightower playing this week.
• Fred Taylor was not back this week, yet BenJarvus Green-Ellis only got 10 carries (though he did score a TD). The loss of Randy Moss means New England will not become more balanced and unpredictable. That means there is no New England RB that we can count on anymore, even The Lawfirm. (But do keep your eye on Danny Woodhead.)
• I know that Carnell Williams is the #1 running back in Tampa Bay…but what exactly does that mean? He ran 10 carries for 18 yards in Week 6 against a pretty weak New Orleans run D. I know he had a nice day catching the football, but that is not something you can expect weekly based on his track record.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em WR: Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia (at Tennessee)

I am writing this section on Sunday night, and while that is a long way from Week 7 Sunday, here is what I know right now that makes me confident listing Maclin here:

• He is coming off the best game of his career, a 7-catch, 159-yard, 2-TD effort against a pretty good Atlanta defense.
• He has now proven he can succeed with either Kevin Kolb or Michael Vick at QB.
• Maclin played very well after DeSean Jackson went out with what is being described as a “severe concussion”. I’d say it’s very doubtful that Jackson plays next week, which makes Maclin the #1 option in a passing game for a coach who calls more pass plays than any coach in NFL history.
• Philadelphia plays Tennessee next weekend. They were one of the league’s worst pass defenses last year and they were 26th in yards allowed per game heading into Week 6.

Add all of this to the fact that Maclin had established himself as a solid every-week start before Week 6, he is a must start and a possible top 10 WR in Week 7.

Jeremy Maclin fantasy football Week 7 projection: 8 receptions, 135 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 7:

• Roy Williams continues to be a fantasy monster and is inching his way towards must start territory. He now has 5 TDs in his team’s five games. Argue with that.
• Get your Saints’ WRs ready. New Orleans plays Cleveland next week, which is giving up at least two TDs to almost everyone. It’s hard to predict who will go off, so just get Colston, Moore, and Meachem in your lineup. And if you’re really hit hard by the bye week, consider Devery Henderson too.
• Mike Wallace responded to Big Ben’s return with a nice day that included a touchdown. A lot of people (me included) were high Wallace before the season as a strong value once Ben returned. Keep him in your lineups as long as Ben stays out of bathrooms (public ones anyone…while drunk…with women…)

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em WR: Deion Branch, New England (at San Diego)

I know that a lot of people will disagree with this, but I am going to ask you to challenge yourself not to  be myopic. More specifically, let’s not overreact to one great game from Branch.

Keep the following things in mind:

• Before Week 6, Branch had not caught more than 6 passes in a game since 2007.
• For his career, Branch is a guy who averages a TD every four games.
• Even when he was in New England the first time, Branch was never a 1,000-yard receiver or a big TD producer.
• The Patriots’ Week 7 opponent, the Chargers, entered Week 6 as the best pass D in the NFL. They were giving up just 163.7 yards per game and had surrendered only 5 TD passes. Sam Bradford only had 198 yards and a TD against them in Week 6, which falls right in line with the average.
• San Diego lost in Week 6, so they’ll be pissed off and focused for a home battle with New England in Week 7.

I recommended Branch as a decent waiver wire option this week, but don’t go overboard with this guy. It is going to be a different Patriots player getting the majority of the targets every week. Remember how frustrating it was to own Branch when he played for New England before? Why would it be any different now that Branch is in his 30s and has the same coach and QB?

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 7 projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 7:

• Devin Hester returned a punt for a TD in Week 6, but you can’t count on that every week. Unfortunately for Hester owners, that is where the majority of his value will have to come now as the team is reducing his WR workload.
• Louis Murphy didn’t do a damn thing against San Francisco last week, which we should have expected since Bruce Gradkowski wasn’t starting. If Jason Campbell is playing QB for the Raiders, you sit all of their WRs.
• I am not a big fan of the Jacksonville WRs next week – which includes Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker. Both are inconsistent anyway, but they’re playing an angry, embarrassed D and David Garrard is rarely great on the road.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em TE: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh (at Miami)

Heath Miller’s value was limited without Roethlisberger in the lineup. In Big Ben’s first game back, we saw what Miller is capable of, as he accumulated 50 yards and a TD. He only had two catches, but I expect that number to increase as the weeks go forward.

The Dolphins tend to give up lots of catches and yards to opposing tight ends. Green Bay didn’t take advantage in Week 6, but that is mostly because they were adjusting to life without Jermichael Finley. Miller should find some nice openings against the ‘Phins in Week 7.

Heath Miller fantasy football Week 7 projection: 5 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 7:

• Brandon Pettigrew had 7 more catches in Week 6. That means in every week other than Week 1, Pettigrew has had either 6 catches or a TD. That’s solid and consistent.

Yes, Pettigrew would be a good Week 7 start…IF HE WERE PLAYING! My bad, the Lions are on a bye this week. Thanks to the commenter who pointed this out. Still, Pettigrew is a solid option for the future.

• If you’re in a pinch this week, and Colt McCoy is starting again at QB, look at Ben Watson and Evan Moore in Cleveland. They are the two most reliable receiving threats on the team, and Mohamed Massaquoi could be out with a concussion.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (at Denver)

The Raiders passing attack is anemic when Jason Campbell is playing QB rather than Bruce Gradkowski. Case in point: Miller had just two catches in Week 6 and didn’t find the end zone. If Campbell plays again in Week 7, consider sitting Miller.

Zach Miller fantasy football Week 7 projection: 3 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 7:

• Anthony Fasano caught a TD pass against the Packers. It was also his only catch of the game. He is far too inconsistent to trust.
• I still don’t get the general affinity for John Carlson I see from many people. He is way too inconsistent and is not a top-12 TE. You can do better.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em Defense: Seattle Seahawks (vs Arizona)

I am not a believer in the Seattle Seahawks as a playoff team this year. However, when they are at home, this a defense that plays pretty well. Against a one-dimensional offense with undrafted rookie QB, I like the Seahawks even more. That’s why they get Sunday against the Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks D fantasy football Week 7 projection: 17 pts or fewer, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 7:

• San Francisco gets to face the hapless Carolina offense this week. That makes the 49ers a decent option.
• The Redskins face the Bears, which means lots of sacks and probably a few turnovers. Take advantage.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants)

The Cowboys have lots of stars on defense, but they aren’t stopping anyone. Plus, they don’t force turnovers, and rarely score defensive TDs. There is very little upside here and almost no reason to start them right now. Oh, and the Giants’ offense has been playing pretty well lately.

Dallas Cowboys D fantasy football Week 7 projection: 20 pts or more, 2 sacks, 0 TOs

Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 7:

• I’m not real high on Tennessee, not after seeing what Philly did to Atlanta last week.
• Green Bay’s defense worries me until Clay Matthews gets back. Make sure he’s playing before you play GB over a decent alternative.

Alright, that’s it for Week 7. Drop your questions below and I’ll answer as quickly as I can.