We are now 7 weeks into the 2010 Fantasy Football season and my combined record in six leagues is 32-10. In only one league am I not at least two games over .500. I don’t keep records of these sorts of things, but I cannot ever remember jumping out to such a strong start in so many leagues.
Making this especially exciting is that in one of my leagues, the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, the stakes are a trip to the Super Bowl for the winner. Those are the highest stakes I’ve ever played for. Add in the potential for bragging rights among my blogging buddies, and you can undoubtedly understand why I spend so much time attempting to optimize my lineup each week.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, do yourself a favor and check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s a fun, easy weekly game you should be taking part in where you pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week (Pierre Garcon! Pierre Garcon!).
Anyway, so far in BFL2010, despite making a few boneheaded decisions (dropping Thomas Jones) and losing one of my top WRs before the season even started (Sidney Rice), I’m sitting in a three-way tie for the best record in the league. Please, if you would, do me a favor and knock on some wood.
All of this early season success, of course, has me terrified.
Success in fantasy football is oftentimes as much about injuries and the whims of head-to-head matchups as it is about making good lineup choices. Oh sure, you have to know what you’re doing to have a chance to win, but you could also finish second in your league in points every week…and still never win a game, through no fault of your own.
So how will I deal with this unprecedented success? Work harder to make sure I am leaving no stone unturned on the waiver wire or with regard to my lineups. I have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs in every league, and there is no time for resting on laurels. Now is the time to up the ante and increase the focus. That way, once the whims of injuries and head-to-head decide to make me their target, I can at least be in the best possible position to overcome them.
So let’s turn our attention to our Week 8 lineups with this week’s Start ‘em, Sit em recommendations.
First, as always, here is how I did in Week 7 with the top-line picks:
- Start ‘em hits: Joe Flacco, Knowshon Moreno, Seattle Seahawks
- Start ‘em misses: Jeremy Maclin, Heath Miller,
- Sit ‘em hits: Jay Cutler, Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, Deion Branch, Dallas Cowboys
- Sit ‘em misses: Zach Miller
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A
Note: the Falcons, Ravens, Bears, Browns, Giants, and Eagles are on bye in Week 8.
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start ‘em QB: Drew Brees, New Orleans (vs Pittsburgh)
You might think that this is an obvious choice – it’s Drew Brees! - but I guarantee that if you troll the comments and Twitter questions this week, lots of people will be questioning Brees after his 4-INT performance against the Browns. That’s just the nature of the beast. We are all prone to overreacting; my job is to tell you when such a reaction is warranted and when it’s not.
I had Brees as my #1 overall QB last, so no one was more disappointed or surprised by his Week 7 performance than I was. But Brees still has thrown a TD in every game this year, and two or more in five out of seven games. So while he’s not Brees vintage 2009, he’s still a guy you need to have in your lineups every single week.
The other reason I feel compelled to list Brees here is that when you look at his matchup and see Pittsburgh, you might be intimidated. If you have Chris Ivory or Pierre Thomas? Yes, be intimidated. But the fact that the Steelers shut down every running game means that teams will throw on them. If Chad Henne could have a productive day against Pittsburgh, Brees certainly can as well. The Steelers don’t give up a lot of passing TDs, but they do give up a lot of yards.
I think the pride of Drew Brees and the Saints was wounded against the Browns. This team is too talented and too experienced to not bounce back with a vengeance. Being at home only helps the cause. I like Drew Brees a lot in Week 7, and you’ll regret it immeasurably if you sit him.
Drew Brees fantasy football week 8 projection: 300 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 8:
- I like all of the guys I highlighted in our Week 8 sleepers post: Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Matt Cassel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- If you have Donovan McNabb, he’s not a bad start this week against Detroit.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Schaub, Houston (at Indianapolis)
I have recommended Matt Schaub consistently this season. Because of the emergence of Arian Foster, and injuries to his receiving corps, Schaub has rewarded me with some decent games but also some clunkers.
Week 1 against the Colts – perhaps the biggest win in the Texans’ history – was one of Schaub’s clunkers. He completed just 9 passes for 107 yards and only 1 TD. Granted, Arian Foster ran wild…but he just might run wild against Indy in Week 8 as well. Remember that the Colts are terrible against the run, but they are pretty solid against the pass (206 yards per game, 7 TDs total).
In his career, Schaub has started four games against the Colts and has thrown just 5 TDs against 7 INTs against the Colts. That’s a decent sample size. Add in the fact that the game is in Indy, and there are are lots of QBs who are usually backups who have great matchups this week, and this is a good week to sit Matt Schaub on your bench.
Matt Schaub fantasy football Week 8 projection: 205 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 8:
- I don’t like whoever starts for Tennessee, whether it’s Vince Young or Kerry Collins. The San Diego Chargers entered Week 7 #1 in the NFL against the pass and then held Tom Brady to just 159 yards and 1 TD. Plus, the Chargers’ D plays its best at home.
Honestly, it’s hard to find other guys to tell you to sit that you wouldn’t be sitting anyway. You either have studs playing good defenses, so you’ll play them anyway, or lower-tier guys with good matchups. Looks like an advantageous week for six teams to be on bye.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start ‘em RB: Ryan Torain, Washington (at Detroit)
Here is the first positive stat about Ryan Torain: he has carried the ball at least 16 times in four straight games.
Here is the second positive stat about Ryan Torain: he has rushed for 100+ yards in two straight games.
Here is the third positive stat about Ryan Torain: in Week 8 the Redskins play the Lions, and the Lions give up nearly 140 yards per game on the ground.
Add all of that up, plus the fact that six running backs who usually start are on bye, and Ryan Torain is an absolute must start in Week 8.
Ryan Torain fantasy football Week 8 projection: 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 reception, 10 yards
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 8:
- Wow Darren McFadden. Wow. Uhh, start him. He’s healthy again. And if you needed me to tell you that, just quit right now.
- Beanie Wells showed signs of life in Week 7. He ran for 54 yards and a TD on only 14 carries against Seattle’s very good run D. In Week 8, Wells gets to face a Tampa Bay run defense that has been good this year. This is the week to play Beanie.
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis has scored TDs in four straight weeks. Granted, his yardage has dipped a lot in the last two weeks, but TDs are TDs, and I think the Patriots will score a few in Week 8. In a week with this many bye weeks, a guy who gets goalline carries for a good offense is valuable. Play The Lawfirm.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Sit ‘em RB: Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas, and all New Orleans RBs (vs Pittsburgh)
The Steelers have the best run D in the NFL and they shut out the 1-2 punch of Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams in Week 8. Seeing as how Chris Ivory could barely run the ball against the Browns – the Browns! – how the hell can you trust any New Orleans running back with the Steelers coming to town?
You know I love Drew Brees, and I think the New Orleans passing attack will have a solid day, but whether it’s Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas, or anyone else, the Saints’ RBs are going to find the going very tough in Week 8. Stay away.
Chris Ivory / Pierre Thomas fantasy football Week 8 projection: 50 yards rushing, 0 TD
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 8:
- I am sick and goddamn tired of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Okay? There, I said it. The San Francisco 49ers shut them down in Week 7 and the St. Louis Rams have only given up two rushing TDs all season. I hope that by finally giving up on DAW it will signal a resurrection. We’ll see.
- The San Diego running game is also pissing me off. While the Patriots have a decent run defense, the Chargers didn’t even try to run the ball in Week 8. 14 carries and 27 yards between Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, and Darren Sproles? And now Tennessee is up next? I’ll pass.
- Marshawn Lynch had 24 carries to Justin Forsett’s 9. That’s a pretty clear sign of who the #1 back is in Seattle. If you have Forsett, you should sit him unless you’re in a deep PPR league.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start ‘em WR: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (vs Houston)
I really hope that this is obvious. (I also hope it’s wrong, as my opponent in BFL2010 has Garcon. Drat.) I actually feel bad listing Garcon here, but I want to make sure you don’t even consider sitting him. With Dallas Clark and Austin Collie out, and probably Joseph Addai too, Garcon will be the guy getting 1-on-1 coverage opposite the sure-to-be-double-teamed Reggie Wayne.
Oh, and did I mention that Houston has the worst pass defense in the NFL? They have given up 14 TDs in 6 games. The redefines the word terrible. Playing Peyton Manning at home, even with an injured receiving corps, will not help matters.
Garcon has 10 catches for 160 yards and a TD the last two weeks. I think there is a chance he equals that against the Texans. He’ll be in my top 10 WR for sure this week. Make sure that you start him.
Pierre Garcon fantasy football Week 8 projection: 8 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 8:
- Mike Wallace and Hines Ward have both caught TDs in the last two games, the first two Roethlisberger starts of 2010. Keep them in your lineups.
- Marques Colston came through in a big way in Week 7 (10 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD) and I think he plays well in Week 8 against Pittsburgh. His targets and catches have been consistent. TDs can fluctuate.
- Dwayne f’ing Bowe. I’ve doubted him for two straight weeks and he’s come through. It pains me to say this, but you should start him against the Buffalo Bills.
- The Broncos WRs were terrible in Week 7 against Oakland. Remember that Oakland is decent against the pass. Denver’s Week 8 opponent, San Francisco, let David Gettis and Brandon LaFell look like Jerry Rice and John Taylor in Week 7. Start Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, and Eddie Royal in Week 8.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Sit ‘em WR: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville (at Dallas)
Go ahead, try and predict how the Jags’ receivers will do from week to week.
Remember when Mike Sims-Walker was a popular sleeper heading into 2010 after his “breakout” 2009? Well despite his three TDs in 2010, he’s thrown up two donuts. With MSW, you just never know when they’ll come.
And how about Mike Thomas? He’s actually been the consistent one this year, catching at least four passes in five out of six games heading into Week 7. And how about Week 7? Thomas did his best Mike Sims-Walker impression by catching no passes.
Add in the fact that Jacksonville has major QB issues, starting the immortal Todd Bouman in Week 7, plus the fact that Dallas gives up only 181 yards per game (and just a shade over 1 TD per game), and the Jags WRs are strong sit candidates for Week 7.
Mike Thomas fantasy football Week 8 projection: 5 catches, 60 yards, 0 TDs
Mike Sims-Walker fantasy football Week 8 projection: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 8:
- If David Carr is starting for the 49ers, Michael Crabtree’s value takes a huge hit, even against Denver. Carr is that bad.
- Steve Breaston did not catch a pass in Week 7. Hmm…maybe he’s not back from his injury yet after all. I’d sit him until he starts producing.
- Kevin Walter started off the season hot, catching TDs in three straight weeks. However, over the last two weeks Walter has caught just 6 passes and no TDs. With Jacoby Jones back healthy and the strong Indy pass D on the Week 8 slate, Walter is not a strong option.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (at Arizona)
There is lots of flux at the TE position. Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark are out. Antonio Gates is banged up (though still catching TDs). Vernon Davis may be forced to deal with David Carr. Sure things are tough to come by.
Kellen Winslow, though without a TD in 2010, is averaging almost five catches and 50 yards per game. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s consistent. And I have a random hunch that he finally finds the end zone in Week 8 with the underrated, maturing Josh Freeman as his QB.
Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 8 projection: 5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 8:
- I like Tony Moeaki against Buffalo a lot, especially after Todd Heap scored two TDs against the Bills in Week 7.
- Jermaine Greshman continues to get consistent targets. He’s ultimately going to have a huge breakout game. TEs against Miami have done well this year, so I’d keep Gresham in your lineup.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Sit ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (vs Washington)
If you follow this site, you now I like Brandon Pettigrew. That said, I wouldn’t mind sitting him during Matthew Stafford’s first week back from injury. The reason is that Pettigrew had only 1 catch for 6 yards in Week 1, which was the only game Stafford has played this year. Last year, when both were rookies, Pettigrew had only two games with more than four catches.
I do think Pettigrew is a solid option for the rest of the season, and that Stafford will get him involved, but with tight end so deep this year, why not take a week to see how they two do together?
Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 34 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 8:
- This was supposed to be the week John Carlson stepped it up. He had one catch for three yards. Stop starting this guy.
- Look, you pretty much have to start Vernon Davis if you have him, especially in a week with 6 byes, but just understand that once David Carr got in there, the 49ers didn’t even look Davis’ way. I sure hope they get this figured out, but Davis’ value decreases every game Alex Smith is not in the lineup.
*********Make sure you read the update before proceeding**********
Update 10/28/10: I am going to leave the Defense picks up below as they were originally posted. However, I have done a complete 180 since delving a bit more into the numbers as this week has gone on. Also, I’ve realized that I just cannot trust the Cowboys.
So here is what I am going to tell you: switch the start ‘em and sit ‘em D’s below. That’s right. Start the Redskins – who give up a lot of yards but not a lot of points, whilst forcing turnovers and having the playmakers to get defensive scores – and sit the Cowboys – who don’t give up a lot of yards, but do give up a lot of points and rarely get turnovers.
Dallas still has a nice matchup versus Jacksonville, and they aren’t a horrible play, (I have them ranked 12th this week), but you can probably grab a D with more upside. Try St. Louis, Tampa Bay, or Kansas City. Washington does have to face a surprising Detroit offense, but we do not yet know how Matt Stafford will play. He is prone to INTs, and DeAngelo Hall has proven he can get ‘em and take ‘em to the house.
My apologies to anyone who saw this early in the week and doesn’t make it back. This has been gnawing at me ever since I posted it, so I figure better late than never.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Start ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (vs Jacksonville)
You may think I’m crazy for listing the Cowboys here after they got slaughtered by the New York Giants in Week 7, but playing the Jacksonville offense can help to cure what ails any defense. With Tony Romo out, the defense now has to lead the Cowboys if they want to have any hope of turning their season around. The talent and coaching are there for this defense to be better that it’s been. Perhaps it is not the elite unit we thought it would be, but I have to think the Cowboys can at least be productive against the Jags.
Dallas Cowboys fantasy football Week 8 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 TO
Other start ‘em Defense / Special Teams units for Week 8:
- Tampa Bay’s D has been solid this year. They face an Arizona team alternating between Derek Anderson and an undrafted rookie free agent. I them them odds.
- The St. Louis Rams have been much better at home than on the road this year. They face Carolina’s woeful offense in Week 8. This is another solid though unspectacular start.
Fantasy Football Week 8 Sit ‘em Defense: Washington Redskins (at Detroit Lions)
The Redskins were fantasy darlings in Week 7. Just remember that the offense they owned was the Chicago Bears. In Week 8, they face a Detroit offense that has been surprisingly potent this year and that gets their field general, Matthew Stafford, back from injury. Especially on the turf in Detroit, where Javhid is at his best, Washington is an uninspiring defense.
Washington Redskins fantasy football Week 8 projection: 20 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO
Other sit ‘em Defense / Special Teams units for Week 8:
- Tennessee’s defense has been very good this year. This week they face a San Diego offense that puts up 20 points even in their worst weeks.
- Miami and Cincinnati have fringe defenses every week. They are playing eachother this week and I have a funny feeling it turns into an offensive game.
Okay, there are your Week 8 start ‘em, sit ‘ems. As you normally do, use the comment section liberally to ask your Week 8 questions. I’ll answer them as quickly as I get to them, all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.